By November 5, a new package of US sanctions against Iran will come into effect on a technical date 180 days after Washington withdraws from the nuclear deal.
With this package, Washington has restored all sanctions imposed by the United States and its European allies before signing the nuclear agreement in 2015.
But sanctions this time imposed by Washington alone, with European opposition, and temporary exemptions for eight countries, compared with 20 exemptions granted by the previous administration between 2012 and 2015, according to the Foreign Ministry.
The package, which will be on Monday, will include sanctions on oil, banks and shipping.
Despite the exemptions, by November 5, Iran will not be able to benefit from the proceeds from the sale of oil legally to the United States. The eight excluded countries will have to pay their dues for Iranian oil in local accounts of Iran in those countries. Tehran will make use of those funds only for the purchase of goods and goods, particularly humanitarian.
For example, Iran will be able to buy rice from India for these funds. Countries that buy Iranian oil and are not exempt will be subject to US sanctions. This raises the most serious question of European countries: "Will Washington impose sanctions on its allies? The old continent as of Monday? "
In this context, another challenge for the United States is its ability to verify that Iran can not benefit from the calculations that will be opened in the countries that are excluded from the sanctions. This is what happened between Iran and Turkey when it turned out that Tehran was buying gold, Is still the focus of a legal dispute with the United States, leaving its impact on the relationship between Ankara and Washington.
New terrorist regulations
Returning to the new package, the US Department of Treasury will add 700 new names, from entities and individuals, to the terrorist lists, of which 400 were listed before the nuclear deal was signed.
The new names will be added to 168 names that the Treasury Department has reintroduced to terrorism and sanctions since Donald Trump came to the White House, including Iran and its arms in the region. Washington has worked with a number of its allies, particularly the Gulf, to dismantle several funding networks for Iran and Hezbollah.
The Treasury Department has announced that the interbank financial network in Belgium, known as Swift, will be, like other entities, subject to sanctions if its ties with Iranian banks are sanctioned.
The US Treasury will announce on Monday a list of banks and financial institutions affected by the sanctions, and the contact between SWIFT and institutions inside Iran will be restricted to humanitarian channels if Swift wants to avoid US sanctions. The network has not yet responded to US demands.
While some believe that the Europeans may try to resort to mechanisms to circumvent the US sanctions, despite the dismantling of several plots aimed at assassinations and bombings on their land, yet the private sector in Europe seems more responsive to the threat of the US, the previous phase witnessed the withdrawal of more than 100 companies from Deals concluded or under contract with the Iranians.
Will US strategy succeed?
The sanctions come as part of what Washington says is its strategy to deal with Iran, which it put forward after the withdrawal from the nuclear deal, which Trump called the "worst deal".
A strategy that Washington continues to emphasize is aimed at pushing the Iranian regime to choose between "abandoning its destructive approach or continuing the path to economic catastrophe." The White House statement said the sanctions targeted the proceeds Tehran uses to finance its nuclear and missile program, Supporting terrorism and enriching its leaders.
A policy that Congress also played a significant role in passing the law "Fighting America's Enemies", which strengthened the ban on Iranian weapons, including sanctions against the background of the missile program, and the human rights file against the Revolutionary Guard.
Observers wonder about the effectiveness of what Washington is doing in the long term, because the sanctions can not be a strategic strategy itself, despite its success, says Iran expert Bahnam Bin Talblo of Sky News Arab: "The path we are witnessing is similar to what happened in 2012, when it was These sanctions are imposed by the entire international community, and the Iranians felt they needed to negotiate. The back channels started to work, and in 2013 there was a connection between former US President Barack Obama and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rowhani, followed in September by the supreme leader of the negotiations.
As the US president repeats the atmosphere before 2012, he continues to reiterate his belief that the Iranians will come to the negotiations later. The White House has expressed its openness to that, but not to a similar agreement to its predecessor. "If the Iranians are ready to sign an agreement that would block their nuclear weapons, , Including the missile program and Iran's behavior in the region, the reasons that led to the withdrawal of the agreement and offered 12 requests for renegotiation, "according to a statement issued by the White House.
"Washington wants to change Iranian behavior, but in view of the faltering economic situation, the rising tone of the objection, and the deterioration of the supreme leader's health, the scenarios remain open to everything," Ben Talblo told Sky News.
