The strong upward trend in the oil markets over two years is facing the strongest test in the coming months, as rising supplies and growing fears of economic weakness are disrupting global demand.
The price of crude exceeded $ 75 to $ 85 a barrel just a month ago, but futures for crude oil and Brent are currently facing a wave of sale is almost calm.
For some time, prices have been supported by hopes that a re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran would lead to market outflows.
But last week, the world's top three producers - Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States - indicated they were pumping at record levels or near record levels, while the United States said it would allow exemptions to allow customers to continue importing Iranian oil, weakening the threat of a crisis. Supplies.
These factors, combined with the recent weak economic data from China and other emerging markets, have turned Hungary back into fears of inflation and pushed US crude futures to low levels since April and stalled the uptrend that found steady support during its mild downtrend.
The US crude futures curve has for several months pointed to tight supply prospects, but futures are predicting that investors believe oil could overwhelm markets in the coming months.
The market has also witnessed the exodus of speculators. In the last two weeks, net bets on price hikes have fallen to a one-year low and sales accelerated last Thursday to bring the WTI down to $ 65 a barrel, a level that had maintained previous waves of selling during the summer and fall.
The oil market rose in anticipation of a renewed US sanctions on Iran this week and concerns that supply of producers may not be enough to compensate for the shortfall.
But the US government said on Friday it would allow a number of countries, including South Korea and Turkey, to import Iranian crude temporarily after the sanctions came into force on Monday to avoid the US threat of economic sanctions.
However, some analysts believe that the current decline is too much and that it happened very quickly. Opec's main producers will not be able to add supplies when needed, especially as the risk still lags behind production in Iran, Venezuela and Libya.
OPEC production has risen to levels not seen in two years. US production hit a record 11.3 million bpd in August and Russia's output rose to 11.4 million bpd, the highest level of the post-Soviet era.
